Bottom Plots: Probabilities for a Range of Numbers of Whales
Once you have set the top plot count pointer to your count, you can read off the bottom plot the probability that there are any range of numbers of whales in all 12 fjords. Do this by moving the left pointer to the lower limit of the range and the right pointer to the upper limit of the range.
Item Title
How can I increase the probability I am right?
Having counted 30 whales; what is the probability that between 120 and 122 whales in all 12 fjords?
Why is this probability so low even though 120 is the most likely number of whales?
 
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  • Top Plots: Probability of Count
    The top plot has your count on the horizontal axis and the relative frequency with which you would get the count if you did a lot of surveys, on the vertical axis. The yellow curve shows relative frequencies for counts when there are really a total of 60 whales in the 12 fjords, the blue curve when there are 120 whales and the green curve when there are 240 whales. (We could show curves for all possible numbers of whales in the fjords, but this would be too messy, so we show only a few examples.)
  • Bottom Plots: Probability of Number of Whales
    The bottom plot shows the total number of whales in all fjords along the horizontal axis and the probability of there being this number, given your count, along the vertical axis. So if your count (in the top plot) changes, the curve in the bottom plot changes.
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